2012年11月21日星期三

Ugg brands

Wedbush Securities Initiated Deckers at an Outperform rating on 11/19 and stated "We find current valuation very compelling and believe little additional headline risk in the stock remains for the balance of 2012." The teeniest,tiniest wooden dolly comes complete with five outfit changes and accessories,all kept in her very own matchbox.It's bound to be a hit with all little girls.I will discuss the details of this later on but this deal was a good litmus test for the valuation of DECK in my opinion uggs clearance sale. Even TheStreet.com weighed in with a piece about how Nike (NKE) should purchase DECK. I've followed the Deckers story for 8 years and actually just recently purchased a stake in the company on the merits of relative valuation.I have held off on buying the stock until it dipped to $31 last week in large part because of the deal VF Corp (VFC) did with Timberland a year ago. In their press release,CEO Mark Parker stated "It is a difficult decision to divest any business but this action will enable us to focus on our highest-potential growth opportunities".Combined,these two sales raised about $795 Million in cash for Nike. While Nike could be focusing on its core brands,I believe there is a case to be made that Nike or some other company is setting itself up to purchase Deckers.By comparison,DECK trades at about 0.8 times sales and they are generating $150 to $200 Million in net income uggs clearance. The primary reason is valuation.Deckers is extremely cheap relative to these three aforementioned buyouts as shown below.Two of the brands above are not profitable yet were purchased for significant premiums over the current valuation of DECK. EBITDA is roughly $240 Million for 2012 so DECK is trading at a EV / EBITDA of 5.40. It appears that the excessive pessimism surrounding DECK may have created a unique opportunity to buy the stock for a 50%+ upside run.Valuation relative to the three recent buyouts I mentioned above is very cheap. Splashing out on anything containing the word "Ugg'' is bound to bring a smile to all teenage girls.A pair of snugly ear muffs will help keep the cold out,too. Additionally,last week Nike (NKE) sold its Cole Haan handbag and shoes brand to a private equity firm for $570 Million in what was its second sale of a brand in the past month.Nike previously sold Umbro,a popular soccer brand,to Iconix Brand Group (ICON) for $225 Million. More at: http://www.uggsclearance-onsale.com

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